Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.014857 0.016811 0.018943 0.021444 0.024299 0.027462 0.031237
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.012115 0.014854 0.018104 0.022259 0.027446 0.033732 0.041963
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.010581 0.013682 0.017576 0.022851 0.029847 0.038863 0.051450
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.009481 0.012803 0.017171 0.023375 0.032028 0.043765 0.061058
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.008368 0.011720 0.016302 0.023081 0.032949 0.046939 0.068535
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.007501 0.010851 0.015593 0.022865 0.033866 0.050095 0.076231
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.006795 0.010121 0.014979 0.022679 0.034744 0.053204 0.084118
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.006388 0.009782 0.014888 0.023239 0.036772 0.058215 0.095505
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.005852 0.009188 0.014341 0.023010 0.037493 0.061186 0.103831
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.005598 0.009005 0.014410 0.023761 0.039862 0.067050 0.117704
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005068 0.008326 0.013615 0.022989 0.039563 0.068339 0.123604
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.004676 0.007841 0.013092 0.022623 0.039912 0.070753 0.131772
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004230 0.007235 0.012327 0.021783 0.039370 0.071587 0.137212
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004097 0.007159 0.012470 0.022584 0.041918 0.078384 0.155100
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003943 0.007032 0.012508 0.023187 0.044142 0.084784 0.172968
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003792 0.006894 0.012511 0.023720 0.046272 0.091208 0.191682
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003541 0.006551 0.012106 0.023421 0.046711 0.094263 0.203527
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003324 0.006253 0.011759 0.023202 0.047281 0.097631 0.216464
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003129 0.005983 0.011443 0.023013 0.047890 0.101132 0.230125
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003035 0.005903 0.011493 0.023582 0.050168 0.108483 0.253731
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.002862 0.005651 0.011178 0.023349 0.050666 0.111919 0.268344
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.002803 0.005625 0.011320 0.024112 0.053463 0.120879 0.297824
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002598 0.005283 0.010781 0.023328 0.052642 0.121308 0.305617